XRP (XRP) has dipped by approximately 12.75% in the last 24 hours to reach the monthly low of $0.511 on Oct. 3.
XRP/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView
The cryptocurrency’s decline has occurred primarily due to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) appeal in the Ripple lawsuit, with the rising tensions in the Middle East furthering the downside sentiment.
SEC appeal dents XRP’s recovery
On Oct. 2, the SEC filed a notice of appeal in the Ripple lawsuit, aiming to challenge Judge Analisa Torres’ 2023 ruling, in which she determined that secondary sales of Ripple’s XRP did not qualify as securities transactions.
Related: Ripple CEO on SEC appeal: ‘We’ll fight in court for as long as we need’
Legal experts had widely anticipated the SEC’s move, as Torres’ decision concluded that XRP itself did not meet all the criteria under the SEC’s Howey test to be classified as a security or investment contract.
Source: Fred Rispoli
XRP’s price has dropped by approximately 16% since the SEC’s appeal, wiping out the gains it secured in September entirely.
Traders are reducing their XRP exposure since the market now faces the risk that a higher court could overturn the previous decision and reclassify the digital token as a security.
Middle East tensions further XRP sell-off
XRP extended its losses in sync with the broader risk-on market as escalating tensions in the Middle East weighed on investor sentiment.
Like European stocks, which saw the Stoxx Europe 600 index drop by 0.8% across all sectors and US equity futures signaling a weaker open, XRP was caught in the broader sell-off.
Stoxx Europe 600 index futures four-hour performance chart. Source: TradingView
The drop coincided with Israel’s overnight airstrikes on Beirut and potential retaliation against Iran following missile attacks. As a result of this geopolitical update, traders are rushing toward the safety of trademark safe haven assets like the US dollar and bonds.
The US dollar index (DXY), for instance, is now trading at its highest in a month after rising four days in a row.
DXY four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView
A sharp XRP price rebound next?
XRP’s recent sell-off is part of its prevailing ascending channel trend.
Notably, the cryptocurrency’s price has been moving between two well-defined parallel trendlines, with the upper boundary acting as resistance around the $0.65-$0.69 range and the lower boundary providing support near $0.50-$0.52.
XRP has recently faced multiple rejections (red-circled areas) at the upper trendline, which coincides with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.6542. A similar rejection this week has led to a strong downward move, contributing to declines on Oct. 3.
XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
The cryptocurrency now trades around the channel’s support trendline, coinciding with the 0.618 Fibonacci level (around $0.5165). This level has historically provided buying interest, as seen from the previous green-circled areas, indicating that buyers might step in again.
So, if XRP bounces back, its price could once again test the upper resistance at around $0.65 by October. However, a breakdown below the channel and the 0.618 Fibonacci level could result in a sharper decline, with the next potential support zone around $0.4639 at the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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