Bitcoin and crypto markets could be on a cusp of a breakout, if historical cycle patterns repeat, according to an analyst.
In a post on X on Sept. 24, analyst Rekt Capital observed that in previous market cycles, Bitcoin (BTC) has historically broken out from its reaccumulation range between 154 and 161 days after the halving.
The BTC halving event this cycle was on April 20, 157 days ago, so we are within the breakout time frame, he said before adding:
“History suggests it is ‘breakout time’ for Bitcoin.”
Source: Rekt Capital
During the 2016 halving year, BTC broke out of the range-bound accumulation phase 154 days after the halving, while in 2020, it broke out 161 days after the halving of that year.
The analyst pointed out that history doesn’t always repeat in a copy-paste manner, but if it were to do so in this cycle:
“Then Bitcoin should be breaking out from its re-accumulation range in the next handful of days, this week.”
The analyst has also compared periodic returns, noting that September is usually bearish for Bitcoin, and the fourth quarter usually sees better returns.
However, on Sept. 21, he said, “Who would’ve thought Bitcoin would print its highest-ever average return for the month of September in this cycle?”
BTC has made around 9% so far this month, beating its second-best September in 2016, when it made 6% for the month.
Additionally, nine of the past eleven October have seen positive returns for Bitcoin, with bull market months such as October 2017 and 2021 seeing greater gains of 48% and 40%, respectively.
Source: Rekt Capital
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Bitcoin has been trading sideways for the past six months but would need to break its previous peak of $73,738 to enter a new price discovery range. It is only 14.6% away from that level.
BTC price has been trading down 1.7% over the past 24 hours at $62,863 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko. It hit a monthly peak of $65,600 on Sept. 23.
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