Venture capitalist and billionaire investor, Chamath Palihapitiya has predicted that Bitcoin could witness an unprecedented price increase to $500,000. This ambitious forecast hinges on the potential for a bull run following Bitcoin’s fourth halving cycle, which occurred on April 20 2024.
Bitcoin To Surge To $500,000
Palihapitiya has entered a notable discussion regarding the impact of historical halving cycles on Bitcoin’s value. The billionaire investor shared a price analysis illustrating Bitcoin’s performance and trend patterns following each halving event.
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According to Palihapitiya, historically, Bitcoin has reached new all-time highs after each halving cycle. He highlighted a correlation between Bitcoin’s halving events from 2012 to 2024, detailing the cryptocurrency’s price actions one month, three months, six months, nine months, 12 months and 18 months post-halving.
Palihapitiya noted that during the first three months after a Bitcoin halving event, investors are usually still reassessing the event and its impact on the crypto market. However, he revealed that from 6 to 18 months post-halving, Bitcoin witnessed an exponential price appreciation, pushing it to new all-time highs.
“Bitcoin price has increased materially following each halving, with the bulk of the returns realized between 12 months and 18 months after the halving event,” Palihapitiya wrote.
He disclosed that 18 months after Bitcoin’s first halving cycle, the cryptocurrency’s price increased by 45X. Following the second halving cycle, Bitcoin rose almost 28X, and after the third halving, it surged nearly 8X.
Based on these halving patterns, Palihapitiya has projected Bitcoin’s future value to reach $500,000 by October 2025, expecting it to follow a similar trend as its previous halving cycles.
BTC Could Replace Gold
In his discussion, Palihapitiya disclosed that by analyzing the average patterns of Bitcoin’s previous halving cycles, the cryptocurrency could potentially surge to a peak of $1.4 million. He declared that Bitcoin could completely replace gold if it reaches such levels of appreciation, emphasizing its potential to become a digital currency with transactional utility for hard assets.
Based on the averages of the second and third halving cycles, the billionaire investor projects Bitcoin’s price to rise to $99,643 six months after its halving event in April, reaching $238,623 in nine months, $362,997 in 12 months and nearly $500,000 in 18 months.
Palihapitiya also disclosed several factors that could contribute to Bitcoin’s rise to $500,000. He stated that the increasing demand for Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) could have a significant impact on the value of Bitcoin in 2024.
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This prediction may hold weight considering Bitcoin saw a consistent price increase at the beginning of the year after the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The cryptocurrency’s price exceeded $73,000 after the launch of Spot Bitcoin ETF, officially marking a new all-time high since 2021.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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